Jelica Putniković, the editor of the “Energija Balkana” portal, told RTS that energy supply disruptions in any part of the world have a ripple effect, spreading across regions due to the interconnected nature of energy markets. Similarly, Jasna Petrović Stojanović, editor of the economic section of the newspaper “Politika,” expressed hope that U.S. sanctions against Serbia’s oil company NIS would not materialize. However, she acknowledged that if sanctions were imposed, nationalization or a third-party acquisition of NIS could be potential alternatives. She noted that Russia is unlikely to relinquish its stake in NIS easily, as this matter extends beyond business into politics.
Following talks with U.S. official José Fernandez about potential sanctions on NIS and Serbia’s energy sector, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said there were no positive developments, but assured that Serbia would safeguard its energy security. Vučić indicated that more details about the conversation would be disclosed in the coming days. Petrović Stojanović believes Serbia can still avoid U.S. sanctions.
She emphasized that these sanctions would target not just NIS but also Serbia itself, as Serbia holds a 30% stake in NIS, making it a direct blow to the country. However, she is hopeful that a workaround can be found, especially given the agreement signed by Serbia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding energy security with the U.S. earlier this year. She also mentioned that the U.S. might not want to violate the terms of this agreement. If sanctions were imposed, she predicted that the alternatives would be nationalization, leading to a majority takeover, or for a third party to buy NIS. However, she believes that Russia would not easily give up its stake in NIS, as the issue is political rather than economic.
Putniković elaborated on the critical role of NIS in Serbia’s economy, explaining that it provides not just fuel for gas stations but also petroleum products vital for the construction, industry and petrochemical sectors. If Serbia had to import all these products, it would significantly impact the country’s projected economic growth for 2025.
Both experts voiced concerns over the U.S. administration’s decision to target Serbia with sanctions, especially given the timing as the current U.S. government nears the end of its term.
Cost of alternative energy sources
Petrović Stojanović outlined potential alternatives to NIS, including suppliers from Hungary, Austria, and Greece. However, she pointed out that in a volatile geopolitical climate, these companies would prioritize their own needs. Despite these alternatives, she argued that NIS, which controls 70% of Serbia’s energy market, should remain the dominant player. She also expressed hope that Serbia could continue relying on its domestic energy reserves, and that the change in U.S. administration could eventually shift the dynamics.
Putniković expressed skepticism about reducing Russia’s share in NIS, noting that if Serbia did so, it would face further costs once sanctions on Russia eventually end. She added that Gazprom and Gazpromneft entered the Serbian market for strategic business reasons, not out of affection for Serbia, and it would be unreasonable to expect Russia to sell its stake to satisfy U.S. or EU demands. Putniković also proposed that Gazprom could take over all shares from Gazprom-Neft, which would lead to new sanctions against Gazprom by the U.S. and EU.
Another suggestion came from Petrović Stojanović, who proposed that Serbia’s public company, Transnafta, could start importing oil, potentially alleviating the crisis. However, she noted that the cost of these alternatives could be a major concern, especially since fuel prices in Serbia are already among the highest in the region.
Impact of European gas shortages
As the EU braces for potential gas shortages due to disruptions in Ukrainian pipelines, Putniković acknowledged that the immediate impact on Serbia is minimal because Serbia receives gas through Turkey and the Balkan Stream pipeline. However, she warned that any disruptions in energy supply would have a cascading effect across interconnected markets. While the EU has filled its storage facilities ahead of winter, energy prices on global markets are rising, which will likely push gas prices higher for Europeans.
Petrović Stojanović agreed that gas prices in Europe would rise as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is much more expensive than Russian pipeline gas. She highlighted that the transportation and conversion costs of LNG would add to the financial strain, especially in countries lacking the necessary infrastructure.
Serbia’s position amid global energy shifts
Petrović Stojanović also commented on the broader geopolitical context, noting that while Serbia is not directly affected by Ukraine-related gas shortages, it could feel the economic consequences of higher energy prices, particularly if the EU struggles with gas-powered industries. She also highlighted the importance of Serbia maintaining its energy security, as disruptions elsewhere often lead to price increases in neighboring markets.
Putniković, however, remained more optimistic, asserting that Serbia’s energy situation is stable for now, largely due to the country’s infrastructure, particularly the TurkStream and Balkan Stream pipelines. She noted that, unlike some other European nations, Serbia’s energy supply is secure as long as the pipelines remain operational. She expressed confidence that Serbia would remain unaffected by energy shocks in the short term, but cautioned that disruptions elsewhere could still spill over into the broader region.
