Fitch, one of the world’s leading rating agencies, has confirmed Serbia’s credit rating at BB+ and maintained a positive outlook, signaling potential for an upgrade to investment grade. This decision was announced in a recent report by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS).
Fitch stated that Serbia’s credit rating is supported by a balanced economic policy, solid fiscal management, strong economic growth prospects, high foreign exchange reserves, and a higher GDP per capita compared to other countries with a similar rating. Additionally, the rating agency highlighted Serbia’s strong economic performance driven by investments, including the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” program, as well as the ongoing reduction of public debt relative to GDP, improvements in external positions, and the country’s ability to manage inflationary pressures effectively.
Fitch forecasts that Serbia’s real GDP growth will accelerate, from 3.9% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and 4.4% in 2026, exceeding the average growth rate of 4% expected for similar countries. Private consumption is expected to remain robust, and the successful execution of infrastructure projects should boost productivity and positively affect exports.
While Fitch anticipates that net exports will continue to contribute negatively to economic growth due to significant imports of equipment and raw materials, the agency remains optimistic about Serbia’s medium-term economic performance.
Fiscal policies, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are expected to continue contributing to fiscal consolidation. Fitch projects that public debt as a percentage of GDP will decline further, falling below 45% by the end of 2027, thanks to the country’s strong economic growth.
