The Serbian Oil Industry (NIS) has been granted another month-long extension on sanctions, now until April 28. During this time, NIS will need to submit another request for an extension unless, by some twist of fate, the company is removed from the sanctions list — a request the company has already made. Since delisting requires approval from Congress, the process could take some time.
However, the issue isn’t just time; the main obstacle is the narrow majority in Congress that needs to approve this proposal, which is currently hanging over both NIS and Serbia. Recently, the situation seemed to worsen when former President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he would impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports unless an agreement is reached with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. The question of lifting sanctions on NIS has gained traction lately, especially after the White House withdrew the nomination of Elise Stefanik as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. This decision stemmed from concerns over maintaining the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which could jeopardize the implementation of Trump’s “America First” agenda.
“Keeping every Republican seat in Congress is crucial. With such a slim majority, I don’t want to risk anyone else competing for her spot,” Trump said.
Currently, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats have 213, with four seats vacant. In the future, Republicans can afford to lose only two votes on any legislation, as Democrats are likely to vote against. Since the beginning of the year, Republicans have been concerned about how to retain their majority in Congress, given the presence of a small group of dissenters whose voting intentions remain unclear. When asked how this narrow majority could affect the delisting of NIS, Dimitrije Milić, a foreign policy analyst, explained that Trump, after taking office in January 2025, would face significant obstacles regarding sanctions on Russia and the potential delisting of NIS from the sanctions list.
“The narrow majority in the U.S. Congress further complicates the process, as decisions on sanctions require legislative approval, and there are disagreements even within the Republican Party. Discussions between Washington and Moscow are still in the early stages, and for more effective communication between the two powers, both sides need to first increase the diplomatic staff in their embassies. Discussions about lifting sanctions on Russia might follow if numerous other conditions are met,” Milić explained.
Although Trump campaigned on improving relations with Russia, recent events suggest a shift in tone. Trump has threatened secondary sanctions on Russian oil unless a ceasefire and peace agreement are reached in Ukraine. This would mean that countries and companies doing business with Russian energy could face U.S. financial restrictions, and likely accompanying European and British sanctions.
“These moves suggest the administration is willing to apply additional economic pressure on Moscow to make progress toward resolving the conflict, which would not be positive news for Russian entities outside of Russia, such as NIS, which is majority-owned by Gazprom. The ball is also in Russia’s court, as Moscow’s reluctance to sell part of its stake in the company to Serbia creates risks of U.S. sanctions, and Serbia could become collateral damage in the political conflict between the U.S. and Russia,” Milić said.
Within the Republican Party itself, there are differing views on Russia. While some of Trump’s loyalists advocate for loosening restrictions, others are more inclined toward a tougher foreign policy stance. Despite Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, their majority is razor-thin, which means that any initiative regarding measures against Russia must secure the support of the entire Republican base, as well as moderate Democrats. The planned summit on May 9 in Russia, which may include leaders such as Trump, Putin, Vučić, and possibly Chinese President Xi, could provide an opportunity for diplomatic talks on these issues. However, given current tensions and the unpredictability of international relations, it is difficult to predict whether concrete progress on delisting NIS will be made by that time.
Igor Novaković, a political scientist and director of research at the ISAK Foundation, stated that he has no information on the delisting of NIS and is not convinced it will happen through Congress.
“The sanctions on NIS are part of a broader package, and as such, they will likely be delisted as part of a larger agreement with Russia. In the context of other sanctions imposed by the Biden administration, NIS is just a footnote.”
He further explained that any potential compromise on NIS will likely come only if a broader agreement is reached between the U.S. and Russia. “The current thawing between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine is leading to temporary relief, but this thaw could easily be halted, as evidenced by Trump’s threat of new sanctions yesterday,” Novaković added.
Regarding U.S. sanctions on NIS, the main issue, he emphasized, is secondary sanctions on companies working with it, particularly banks that risk being impacted in their international financial transactions. The European Union sanctions do not affect this directly, but NIS can still operate without issues since Gazpromneft no longer holds a 51% stake in the company after selling part of its shares to Gazprom, which is not under EU sanctions.
“Moreover, even if U.S. sanctions on Russia are lifted, there is no automatic response from the EU to lift its sanctions on Russia. In fact, there is a strong possibility that the EU will maintain its stance,” Novaković concluded.
Serbia finds itself in a challenging position, but its government has shown that it can navigate these difficult times. Two delays in sanctions against NIS demonstrate that Serbia is not just a target of external pressures but has the ability to protect its interests. This suggests that Serbia’s strategy is effective, according to political analyst Marko Miškeljin.
“The U.S. Congress represents a headache due to internal divisions — some accept Trump’s line on Russia, while others tighten the noose around anything related to Moscow. This is not the end of the world, but NIS, with Gazprom behind it, has become a politically hot potato.”
Trump’s announcement of secondary tariffs on Russian oil if the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved will add further strain on NIS. This gives Trump a strong negotiating point with Putin. Tariffs of 25-50% could impact all of Europe, including Serbia, where it will hurt the most. Talks with OFAK are ongoing, and a solution is actively being sought.
“As for May 9, the symbolism is clear — Victory Day holds significant weight, especially for Russia. The presence of leaders like Trump, Putin, Xi, Vučić, Orban, and Fico could open the door for a major summit that could, in theory, lead to a resolution. But without concrete announcements, the question remains whether the stars will align by that date. The solution? Continue the policy our government is already pursuing — maintaining diplomatic balance, actively engaging with both East and West, and seeking partnerships with free-spirited countries like Hungary and Slovakia, while resisting all pressures,” Miškeljin concluded.
