China’s engagement with Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has seen significant evolution, as illustrated by Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping’s recent visit to France, Serbia and Hungary. This visit, the first since 2019, underscores Beijing’s strategic focus on consolidating relationships with key regional players.
Strategic focus and special relationships
Hungary and Serbia have emerged as particularly receptive partners for China. Hungary, an EU and NATO member, and Serbia, a pro-Russian non-EU country, offer Beijing valuable strategic leverage. Despite setbacks in CEE, China’s investments and diplomatic efforts have positioned these nations as key allies, leveraging their favorable political and economic environments.
Declining enthusiasm in CEE
China’s influence in CEE has waned since the peak of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) era in the early 2010s. The former 17+1 platform, aimed at enhancing investment and trade, has lost momentum, with several countries exiting and the BRI’s appeal diminishing. The 2021 summit, marked by multiple non-participations and a failed joint communique, reflects the region’s skepticism towards Chinese promises and its handling of global issues, including the pandemic.
Economic relationships and concerns
Chinese investment in CEE remains modest compared to Western Europe. From 2014 to 2021, Western Europe received the bulk of Chinese investment, with Hungary recently becoming a notable exception due to its significant investments in electric vehicles. Concerns persist over Chinese involvement in sensitive sectors such as telecommunications and nuclear infrastructure, highlighting regional apprehensions about security and dependency.
Hungary’s special status
Hungary stands out as China’s primary partner in CEE, with a burgeoning relationship highlighted by recent agreements in railway construction, oil pipelines, and media cooperation. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s alignment with Chinese interests, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, underscores Hungary’s strategic role as a gateway for China into the EU market. This partnership also serves as a counterbalance to EU pressures on Hungary.
Serbia’s role in the Western Balkans
Serbia has strengthened its ties with China, marking a significant upgrade from a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to a “Global Community of Shared Future.” This deepening relationship, exemplified by the Belgrade-Budapest railway project, reinforces Serbia’s position as a central hub in the Western Balkans and a key component in China’s regional strategy.
Diverse European reactions
Central European countries exhibit varied responses to China. Lithuania and the Czech Republic have taken firm stances against Chinese policies, particularly concerning Taiwan and human rights. Conversely, countries like Poland, Romania and Slovakia maintain pragmatic approaches, balancing trade interests with cautious engagement amid concerns over China’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
This complex landscape reflects the shifting dynamics of China’s influence in Europe, with Hungary and Serbia playing pivotal roles in Beijing’s regional strategy.
