Household consumers in Serbia spend an average of 37,501 dinars per month on food and essential items, with the largest portion of their budgets going toward fresh food. According to the NielsenIQ (NIQ) ShopperTrends study for 2024, 71% of Serbian consumers plan their purchases, but 69% also end up buying additional products. The categories that saw the highest value sales in food products in Serbia during 2024 included beer, carbonated beverages, processed meats, biscuits, ground coffee, and classic yogurt, while non-food categories saw the highest sales in dishwashing detergents, toilet paper, fabric softeners, baby diapers, and deodorants.
After a period of high inflation, consumers have developed saving strategies, but the start of 2024 brings optimism and a recovery of purchasing power. The FMCG industry in Serbia saw a nominal sales growth of 9.3% over the past 12 months leading up to the third quarter of 2024, with 4.7% of the growth driven by increased sales volumes and 4.5% from price hikes. In the third quarter, price growth outpaced sales volume growth (4.1% vs. 3.2%). A similar recovery trend can be seen in Eastern Europe, with value growth of 6.2% in the region, 2.5% of which is attributed to increased sales volume.
Consumer trends in the Serbian market
The 2024 NielsenIQ (NIQ) ShopperTrends study reveals that nearly three-quarters of Serbian consumers (71%) carefully plan their purchases by making a shopping list before going to the store. However, 69% of them purchase additional products not listed, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous year and a strong potential for further in-store activities. The key factors influencing store choice for most consumers are fresh fruits and vegetables, fresh meat, and dairy products. As a result, 51% of consumers would adjust their route to buy fresh produce at a specific store, while 55% would reroute for high-quality fresh meat. Products like baby food and diapers have a smaller impact on store choice.
In 2024, mobile app usage for shopping has significantly increased, surpassing traditional leaflets, and has become the primary source of information for FMCG products in Serbia.
Approximately one-third of shoppers tend to visit the same store consistently. There has been a noticeable shift compared to last year, with a higher percentage of consumers preferring to shop at the same store, indicating stronger loyalty. Additionally, brand loyalty has increased, as evidenced by a decrease in the number of trend-seeking consumers looking to try new brands. Consumers have developed several responses to high prices during the past years of inflation, and some are still present. The most prevalent strategy is “reducing the purchase of luxury products” (48% of consumers), followed by “reducing costs by purchasing discounted items” (37%). It is noteworthy that there has been a significant decrease in the percentage of consumers adopting these strategies, suggesting that Serbian consumers feel more financially secure.
Consumers in Serbia are paying less attention to the prices of everyday products than they did a year ago. Dairy products, baked goods, fruits, and vegetables are categories where consumers are most aware of prices, while baby food and plant-based milk categories receive the least attention.
The average Serbian consumer spends 37,501 dinars per month on food, household items, and personal hygiene products, representing a 13% increase compared to the previous year. Of this, 19,148 dinars are spent on fresh food, which makes up 51% of the total reported expenditure.
Promotional sales as a major driver of FMCG industry growth
Promotional sales have a more significant impact on the value growth of the FMCG industry in Serbia compared to standard sales. In contrast, in Croatia, the impact of promotional sales is less pronounced. In certain product categories, such as paper products or basic foodstuffs, promotional sales not only have a noticeable effect but are the primary driver of growth, while regular sales have decreased.
Serbia leads the region in the share of promotional sales in total sales, which has significantly increased year after year, now standing at 38%.
In the past year, certain product categories in Serbia, such as packaged ready meals from meat and fish, sweet spreads, packaged bread, coffee, and toilet paper, showed a significant share of promotional sales exceeding 50%. Notably, almost half of the categories in the industry recorded a higher discount depth compared to the previous year.
Private label growth in hypermarkets and supermarkets
Private label products in Eastern Europe account for nearly one-fifth of total value sales, with Western Europe countries, such as Switzerland (52%) and the UK (47%), leading the charge. In Eastern Europe, Slovenia has the highest share, with 36%. In Serbia, the share stands at 13%, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to 2023. The perception of private labels has notably changed, with more than half of consumers comparing branded products’ prices to private label prices. Around one-fifth of shoppers claim to buy premium store brands more than ever before.
Private label sales in Serbia are most notable in dairy and meat products, frozen goods, and essential foodstuffs like oil. Private label products also have a significant share in paper products and baby diapers. In Serbia, the largest growth in private labels comes from the food categories, while products for household maintenance have seen a decline in value share.
Sales of private label products have been growing faster than branded products, though the gap in growth rates is narrowing. In the past 12 months, private label products experienced a value growth of 13%, with 11% coming from increased unit sales and only 2% from price growth. On the other hand, branded products grew by 10%, with 4% coming from increased unit sales and 6% from price increases.
Retail landscape
When analyzing the retail market by store type, all channels have recorded value growth. Hypermarkets and small mixed goods stores have lost some market share, while large and medium-sized mixed goods stores and drugstores have increased their share the most. Discounters have maintained their share and slightly increased it. On average, Serbian consumers visit stores from three different retailers per month, a number unchanged from the previous year. There has been a reduction in the frequency of visits to hypermarkets, but supermarkets have seen increased visitation.
A large portion of Serbian consumers in 2024 shows greater loyalty to retailers and brands compared to the previous year. Consumers are less inclined to seek out new brands and products, indicating stronger attachment to familiar stores and brands. Consumers are increasingly using mobile shopping apps, and promotional sales have become a key factor in FMCG industry growth, accounting for 38% of total sales. Private label products, as a means of saving, have also seen growth, especially in hypermarkets and supermarkets.
In 2024, volume sales have surpassed price growth in Serbia, with a 9.3% value increase. Despite signs of recovery after years of market disruptions, including the global pandemic, this market recovery and the strengthening of consumer purchasing power should be approached cautiously and analyzed carefully to develop the right strategies for growth.
