Global copper prices have soared to their highest level in the past two years, reaching over $10,000 per ton on world exchanges. Over the last two months alone, copper prices have surged by 28 percent. Despite this significant increase, experts anticipate that the price of copper will continue to rise. Traders are projecting that copper could reach $40,000 per ton within the next four years, citing a substantial supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist. With production failing to keep pace with demand, the need for new mines is becoming increasingly apparent.
Copper’s importance in the energy transition is a key factor driving its price upward. As the world gradually shifts away from fossil fuels towards alternative energy sources, demand for copper is expected to remain high in the coming years. This trend is reflected in global markets and has implications for exporters. Last year, exports of precious and non-ferrous metals amounted to one billion euros. In 2023, the Chinese company “Zijin,” which owns the Bor mines, increased production by 55.5 percent compared to the previous year. Production more than doubled in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Bojan Stanić, assistant director of the Sector for Strategic Analysis, Services, and Internationalization at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, emphasizes that copper prices are influenced by global circumstances. He notes that the price of copper exceeded $10,000 per ton in 2021 following the reopening after the pandemic, making it a favorable period for exporters. Analysts attribute the price increase to concerns about copper shortages impacting industries and high-tech applications essential for the green transformation. Copper is considered a barometer of the global economy, reflecting its health through price fluctuations.
Regarding Serbia’s mining sector, Stanić highlights the importance of finding strategic partners to optimize operations. Historically, the Bor mines were managed by the French before World War II, and securing partnerships remains critical for successful exploitation. The deal with Chinese investors has significantly boosted production and facilitated exports to both China and the European Union, driving economic growth in the region.
Ivan Nikolić, editor of the publication Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends, views the surge in copper prices as beneficial for exporters and an incentive for increased production. He attributes the price hike to shifts in global production technology, particularly in components like conductors and semiconductors. With demand outpacing supply, the price of copper remains on an upward trajectory, benefiting both Serbian exporters and Chinese producers alike.
