Recent figures regarding unemployment in Serbia reveal a divergence between the Republic Institute of Statistics (RZS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the RZS, the unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2024 stands at 8.2%. In contrast, the IMF projects the rate will be around 9% by year-end. Despite this discrepancy, even if the IMF’s prediction holds true, the overall number of unemployed is not expected to rise significantly, as the unemployment rate has been on a downward trend—falling from 9.9% in 2021 to 9.4% in 2022, and 9.1% in 2023.
While Serbia’s unemployment remains higher than the Eurozone average of 6.4%, it is important to note that countries like the Czech Republic (2.7%) and Poland (2.9%) have significantly lower rates. Conversely, nations like Spain (11.5%) and Greece (9.9%) experience higher unemployment than Serbia.
Economic perspectives
Domestic economists express optimism about the declining unemployment trend. However, trade union representatives warn that certain companies may consider layoffs due to economic challenges. As of the second quarter of 2024, there are approximately 2.9 million employed individuals in Serbia, with 257,800 classified as unemployed. Compared to the previous year, employment has increased by 48,400 while unemployment has decreased by 44,800.
Professor Nikola Stakić from Singidunum University attributes the positive trend to factors such as demographic shifts, with many citizens seeking work abroad, and increased economic activity, particularly in preparation for the Expo 2027 world exhibition. To further reduce unemployment, Stakić emphasizes the need for state incentives to support small and medium-sized enterprises through tax benefits, which could stimulate job creation.
Call for further action
Stakić advocates for sustained economic activity beyond the EXPO preparations to reach employment levels seen in more developed European nations. He notes that while Serbia’s unemployment rate is declining, it remains high compared to desired benchmarks.
Ljubisav Orbović, president of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Serbia, acknowledges the positive trend but underscores that the current rate is still unsatisfactory. He argues that for the unemployment situation to be deemed favorable, rates should fall below 5%. Orbović also highlights concerns regarding the structure of unemployment statistics, questioning whether they account for citizens who have moved abroad.
In conclusion, while Serbia’s unemployment rate shows signs of improvement, continued efforts are needed to address underlying economic challenges and further decrease the rate to more acceptable levels.
