The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has upheld its 2025 economic growth forecast for Serbia at 4%, following a 3.8% growth in 2024, in line with previous projections. According to the bank’s Regional Economic Perspectives report, Serbia’s economy is expected to continue growing by 4% in 2026 as well.
While the EBRD highlights that capital investments related to Expo 2027 could boost Serbia’s growth, it also warns of global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding customs duties, which may negatively impact Serbian exports and foreign direct investment inflows.
The bank attributed Serbia’s growth in 2024 mainly to services, including trade, tourism, and construction, with household consumption and investments driving demand. Serbia’s budget deficit for 2024 stood at 2.2% of GDP, lower than expected, though concerns over a growing current account deficit remain, offset by a record inflow of foreign direct investments.
In contrast, the EBRD downgraded its regional economic forecast for 2025 by 0.3% from its September 2024 prediction, expecting an average growth of 3.2% across the economies in which the bank invests, with a slightly higher growth of 3.4% in 2026.
