Experts believe that now could be the ideal opportunity for Serbia to regain ownership of the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS), which has been majority-owned by Russian companies Gazprom Neft and Gazprom since 2008. Currently, Gazprom holds 56 percent of NIS, with the Serbian state owning 29 percent and the remainder held by minority shareholders. The fair value of the Russian stake is estimated at around 730 million euros, according to Danas.
The introduction of American sanctions on NIS has been announced but has not yet been officially confirmed. If imposed, this could further impact the company’s operations and present an opportunity for Serbia to take full control.
Economist Saša Đogović recently stated in Vreme that now would be an optimal time for the Serbian state, either independently or with another partner, to acquire the majority of NIS shares. Đogović emphasized the need to alter the ownership structure of NIS, as this would allow Serbia to have more control over its oil resources. He also pointed out that discussions with Russian partners would likely follow, as this would signal to the West that Serbia has a chance to diversify its energy sources, especially in light of ongoing efforts to diversify its natural gas supplies.
In recent trading, the price of NIS shares dropped sharply. On Friday, the price was 778 dinars, but by Monday, it had fallen by 12.85 percent, dropping to around 678 dinars.
Profits decline amid rising oil prices
Seventeen years ago, in 2008, 49 percent of NIS was sold for 400 million euros. Last year, the company posted a record profit of 787 million euros, more than double the amount it was sold for. This profit surge was attributed to a significant increase in oil prices during the global energy crisis. However, NIS’s profits decreased to 377 million euros in 2023, still higher than in pre-war years, though impacted by a drop in oil prices from their 2022 peaks.
In the first nine months of 2024, NIS made a net profit of around 68 million euros, a staggering 75 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023. This sharp decline in profits is largely due to the stoppage of operations at the Pančevo oil refinery for scheduled maintenance.
The future of NIS remains uncertain, but experts agree that it may present a strategic moment for Serbia to reassess its role in the oil industry and strengthen its energy independence.
