Tomislav Mićović, Secretary General of the Association of Oil Companies, recently discussed the impact of new American sanctions on the Russian fleet of shadow oil tankers, emphasizing that logistics and the Russian fleet are key issues for Serbia. He highlighted that Serbia must utilize all available resources and logistics channels to maintain oil imports and preserve the functioning of the Pančevo Refinery, which could face difficulties if sanctions disrupt operations.
In response to the US energy sanctions, Serbia has engaged in urgent consultations with Moscow, particularly concerning NIS (Serbian Oil Industry), to ensure the continued supply of oil derivatives. Mićović noted that crude oil prices began rising in mid-December and have now spiked sharply, largely due to new sanctions. However, he believes that this price peak will stabilize in the coming days, based on historical patterns.
Logistical challenges with the Russian shadow fleet
Mićović stressed that while oil production is adequate, logistical issues have become more pressing. The newly imposed sanctions affect a significant number of ships, especially those in the Russian shadow fleet, which were previously used to transport Russian oil under sanctions. These ships are now under strict control, and the logistics of oil transport are becoming increasingly problematic. Mićović anticipates that Russia will seek alternative shipping solutions to address the growing logistical challenges.
Oil supply and demand outlook
Despite these challenges, Mićović remains confident that oil demand will not outstrip supply. According to recent data from the United States, the global supply of oil will continue to exceed demand in the coming years, ensuring market stability. Mićović pointed out that initial projections for 2025 had been more optimistic but are now being revised downward, indicating that the expected expansion in crude oil demand has not materialized as initially anticipated.
Preserving NIS supply
Mićović emphasized that the Serbian oil industry must maximize its existing resources and infrastructure to maintain steady supply. He underscored the importance of preserving NIS’s capacity to supply the Serbian market, especially given its large market share. Any threat to the crude oil processing capacity at the Pančevo Refinery would be difficult to overcome in a short period, making it crucial to ensure its continued operation.
Exploring alternative oil imports
When discussing alternative sources for oil imports, Mićović explained that the geographic origin of the oil is less important than its technical compatibility with the Pančevo Refinery. Serbia has been exploring oil from countries like Kazakhstan, Iraq and Azerbaijan, which meet the refinery’s technical requirements. He also noted that Serbia’s nine oil companies—predominantly international, with a few domestic players—are well-positioned to address logistical challenges, though the speed of administrative processes remains a key hurdle.
Mićović concluded by stressing that although logistical solutions are possible, resolving these issues quickly is unrealistic. The situation requires careful planning and long-term adjustments to ensure continued supply and stability in Serbia’s oil market.
