Two years ago, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić hinted at the possibility of Serbia taking control of the oil company NIS to shield itself from sanctions targeting Russia. This speculation arose amid discussions on how Serbia could navigate the ownership structure, especially with reports suggesting that the Hungarian company MOL might also show interest in acquiring a controlling stake.
Now, with the United States imposing “complete sanctions” on NIS due to its Russian ownership, the question of how to restructure the ownership shares has resurfaced. However, Nenad Gujaničić, the main broker at Momentum Securities, believes that this is unlikely to be a viable solution for now.
Gujaničić explained in an interview with Biznis.rs that he does not foresee any serious movement on reselling NIS until the end of the war in Ukraine. He believes that the Russian side would not part with a strategic asset in the Balkans by selling its controlling stake in NIS. In 2022, the Russians had made some minor adjustments to the ownership structure, selling a portion of their shares in a move not involving Serbia or any third-party investors.
According to Gujaničić, these changes were unlikely to have met the goals of American sanctions aimed at removing Russian influence from the company’s management. If the Serbian government or a third party were to acquire a controlling stake in NIS, it would come at a significant cost. With NIS currently valued at around one billion euros, purchasing the controlling shares would cost several billion euros, based on current market prices.
The ownership of NIS remains largely unchanged since 2022, with Gazprom Neft holding 50% of the shares, Serbia holding 29.87%, and Gazprom maintaining a 6.15% stake. The largest among the smaller shareholders is OTP Bank, with 1.61%.
Gujaničić’s calculations suggest that acquiring 20.02% of NIS shares for majority ownership on the Belgrade Stock Exchange would require around 200 million euros, but finding willing sellers at this price would be challenging. If an investor aimed to acquire the entire company, the cost would range from 2.5 to 3.5 billion euros.
In 2008, Serbia signed an Energy Agreement with Russia, allowing Gazprom to acquire 51% of NIS for 400 million euros, with an additional commitment to invest 500 million euros in the company by 2012. In exchange, Gazprom also undertook to help build part of the South gas pipeline. Vučić noted that if Serbia were to purchase NIS now, the price would be much higher, adding that although Serbia currently has the funds, such a move would not be a long-term solution.
Vučić emphasized that the situation is complex, and while he plans to engage with the U.S. administration, there is no easy resolution. Meanwhile, NIS assured the public that its operations continue uninterrupted, with regular fuel supply and the Pancevo Oil Refinery running as usual.
