Serbia’s economic performance in the first quarter has been highlighted by President Aleksandar Vučić, who declared Serbia as the fastest-growing economy in Europe during this period. He expressed confidence that by year-end, Serbia will rank among the top two or three countries in Europe in terms of growth. According to Eurostat data cited by the Republic Institute of Statistics, Serbia indeed achieved a growth rate of 4.7%, surpassing all EU countries that have reported their quarterly data.
When considering the wider Western Balkan region, Serbia maintains a leading position, though the gap compared to developed European nations is less pronounced. In the first quarter, neighboring countries such as Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina also reported robust growth rates: 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.6%, and 2.7%, respectively.
However, Serbia’s leadership is not uncontested. Turkey recorded a remarkable 7.4% growth rate in the same period, while Eurostat slightly adjusted Serbia’s growth figure to 4.5%, placing Malta marginally ahead at 4.6%. Meanwhile, major EU economies like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported mixed results ranging from minor contraction to moderate growth rates.
President Vučić acknowledged that quarterly growth rates do not always reflect long-term economic trends, citing fluctuations observed in previous years. He anticipates challenges in subsequent quarters due to planned infrastructure projects impacting economic activities.
Recent macroeconomic analyses suggest that Serbia’s economic growth moderated to 4.3% in the first five months, indicating slower growth in April and May compared to the exceptional performance in the first quarter. Key sectors such as construction and trade saw substantial year-on-year expansions, contrasting with more modest gains in manufacturing, mining, and agriculture.
Nenad Jevtović from the Institute for Development and Innovation cautioned against prematurely interpreting short-term growth spurts as indicative of sustained economic trends, emphasizing the need for a longer observation period. He underscored the potential for higher growth rates in the region compared to Western Europe, attributing slower long-term growth to structural and demographic challenges.
Looking ahead, Jevtović highlighted the necessity for sustained growth rates exceeding five to seven percent annually to narrow the economic gap not only with Western Europe but also with regional peers like Poland. He emphasized the critical importance of addressing demographic issues and enhancing the economic impact of scientific advancements to ensure sustainable economic progress in the Western Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe.
