In the first 10 months of 2024, a notable shift in Serbia’s foreign trade emerged, with a particular focus on imports from the African country of Congo. Although Congo isn’t a top trade partner, the dramatic increase in copper imports from the country caught attention. The import index for this sector skyrocketed to 9,999.9, suggesting that Serbia imported nearly 100 times more goods from Congo last year.
Although Congo’s overall trade value with Serbia remained modest at $188.5 million, the bulk of this sum was dominated by a single product: copper ore and concentrates. This massive spike in copper imports contrasts with the minimal value of other goods from Congo, which were only worth a few thousand dollars.
The copper surge mirrors the larger global trends in the copper market, which experienced fluctuations in prices. At one point, copper prices exceeded $10,000 per metric ton, though even after a decrease, it remained above $9,000 per ton. Analysts often regard copper as an industrial bellwether, as its demand and price serve as indicators of broader economic activity. The rise in copper prices likely reflects a robust industrial demand, a trend Serbia capitalized on by importing the ore.
Zijin Mining’s role in copper imports
The surge in copper imports from Congo is likely tied to Serbia’s cooperation with Zijin Copper, a major player in the global copper industry. Bojan Stanić, Assistant Director at the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, suggests that the import of copper from Congo is likely linked to Zijin’s operations, particularly in the Kolwezi mine in Congo, which produces substantial copper and cobalt. However, Stanić predicts that this spike in copper imports from Congo is likely to be an isolated incident and may not be repeated in the near future.
Shifts in Serbia’s export markets
The first 10 months of 2024 also saw significant changes in Serbia’s export landscape. Exports to countries like Germany and Italy declined, while exports to China and Turkey grew substantially. According to Stanić, exports to Turkey doubled last year, largely driven by refined copper shipments. In 2023, Serbia’s exports to Turkey amounted to approximately $470 million, but in 2024, they surged to nearly $900 million. The export of refined copper, which was absent from the list of top exports in 2023, has become a key contributor to this rise in trade with Turkey.
Refined copper was also Serbia’s top export to Greece, where it amounted to $87.5 million, a 7.5-fold increase from the previous year. Overall, exports to Greece rose nearly 25% in the first 10 months of 2024, totaling $331 million. Alongside copper, Serbia also exported ice cream, valued at $14.5 million, with demand for this product remaining steady.
Hong Kong: A rising trade partner
One of the most notable developments in Serbia’s foreign trade was the significant rise in trade with Hong Kong. Exports to Hong Kong doubled, reaching $58.7 million, with silver comprising the largest portion at $19.5 million. Serbia also exported metal drilling machines to Hong Kong, valued at approximately $7 million.
However, imports from Hong Kong saw an even greater increase, totaling $92.5 million in the first 10 months of the year. Notably, Serbia imported telephones and related equipment for $27 million, as well as cigars and cigarillos worth $14 million.
Overall foreign trade growth
Serbia’s total foreign trade in goods for the period from January to November 2024 reached $67.7 billion, marking a 4.5% increase compared to the same period the previous year. This growth was driven by a combination of copper-related exports, as well as broader shifts in the country’s trade dynamics, reflecting the changing landscape of global demand for key industrial products.
