Serbia has taken a significant step in improving the transparency of its state investments with the publication of the “Revised Fiscal Strategy for 2025 with Projections for 2026 and 2027”. This marks the first time the government has detailed the prices of all major infrastructure projects costing over 20 million euros, totaling 56 projects worth 2.4 billion euros, set to be completed by 2027.
The move comes after pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March, urging the Serbian government to enhance investment transparency and operationalize a framework for managing public investments. The IMF had emphasized the need for cautious fiscal management and long-term investment planning while stressing that the government must prioritize projects based on costs, expected benefits, and broader economic impacts.
Major infrastructure projects
Among the 56 listed projects, seven stand out with individual costs exceeding 100 billion dinars (about 850 million euros). The most expensive of these is the communal infrastructure project for sewage systems and waste management, which is expected to cost 368 billion dinars (3.1 billion euros). Other high-value projects include the Moravian Corridor highway (252 billion dinars), the Belgrade-Nis railway modernization (208 billion dinars), and the Belgrade-Zrenjanin highway (187 billion dinars).
Other significant infrastructure investments include:
- Hungarian-Serbian railway: 155 billion dinars
- EXPO 2027 project, involving the construction of the Belgrade Fair (139 billion dinars)
- Ruma-Šabac-Loznica road (106 billion dinars)
- National Football Stadium (67.5 billion dinars, but Fiscal Council estimates 112 billion dinars)
While the National Stadium has faced some discrepancies in its cost estimates, with the Fiscal Council noting an upward revision to nearly 1 billion euros, the overall push for greater transparency in public investments has been praised.
Challenges and criticisms
Despite the positive steps in presenting the fiscal strategy, the Fiscal Council pointed out several issues. While the new strategy lists key infrastructure projects, some are missing, such as the Belgrade Metro project and the Šumadija Corridor road, both of which are expected to be major investments in the coming years. Moreover, some projects, like the Bački Breg-Kikinda road, are under preparation but not included in the published strategy.
The Council also expressed concerns that the sectoral structure of these investments remains unclear. Serbia lacks a unified system for managing state capital projects, leading to the potential for various projects to bypass general regulations related to procurement, expropriation, and construction.
Additionally, the Fiscal Council raised concerns that several large projects had undergone substantial cost increases in a short period. For instance, the EXPO 2027 project saw its costs for 2025-2026 double compared to earlier estimates, increasing the total investment for the event to 1.2 billion euros.
Economic impact and future projections
According to the Revised Fiscal Strategy, public investments in Serbia are expected to average 7.3% of GDP in the next three years, which will make Serbia one of the top countries in Europe for public investment spending. However, the Fiscal Council remains cautious, warning that high investment levels need to be paired with proper management frameworks to ensure efficiency and avoid overspending.
Despite these challenges, the Serbian government remains committed to continuing its development plan through “Leap into the Future – Serbia 2027” with 323 major projects aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure and economy.
