The introduction of U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s Oil Industry (NIS), majority-owned by Russian companies Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, has not been officially confirmed. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was informed that sanctions would soon be imposed due to Russian ownership, although he did not receive an official notification.
While U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill did not confirm the sanctions, he noted that cooperation with Russian companies poses risks and suggested that a change in ownership could bring stability to Serbia and the region. European sanctions against NIS were discussed in 2022 but never enacted.
If the U.S. sanctions are confirmed, NIS could face severe consequences: it would be unable to buy oil, import oil through the Adriatic Oil Pipeline (JANAF) from Croatia, and possibly lose access to financial systems. This would disrupt fuel supply, increase prices, and potentially trigger inflation.
NIS has already been under indirect sanctions due to its parent company, Gazprom Neft, limiting its access to finance and crude oil markets. If direct sanctions were imposed, it could mean a ban on cooperation with European and other companies reliant on the U.S. and European systems, severely affecting NIS’s oil supply.
An agreement between Serbia and the U.S., or a sale of Russian shares in NIS, could potentially resolve the situation. Serbia may attempt to reduce Russian ownership below 50%, though the likelihood of full acquisition is uncertain.
In the event of sanctions, NIS would struggle to operate, which would affect the Serbian economy. The company contributes around 9% to the national budget, and fuel shortages could result in further price hikes and economic instability.
Analysts suggest solutions like nationalizing NIS or buying out the Russian share. Valuation estimates indicate that acquiring Gazprom’s stake could cost around 630 million euros, based on NIS’s current market capitalization.
